Données extraites le 2026-10-04 à 04h31 · Rapport généré le 2026-10-04 15h53
valeur = (projection + ajustement) + k × marge d'erreur · 127 circonscriptions · 5 partis
Chaque parti : position (k × marge d'erreur) et point de départ (ajustement en points). Formule : valeur = (projection + offset) + k × marge. Le résumé et le tableau se recalculent à chaque changement.
Recalculé à chaque changement · égalités parfaites au sommet comptées à part · bonus (+N) = circonscriptions où le parti est lié à l'égalité parfaite (siège gagné si l'égalité se résout en sa faveur)
| Parti | Sièges |
|---|---|
| CAQ | 0 |
| PQ | 60 (+3) |
| PLQ | 38 (+1) |
| QS | 7 (+2) |
| PCQ | 18 (+2) |
| Total | 123 |
| 4 égalité(s) | |
| Parti | Moyenne des 127 circonscriptions |
|---|---|
| CAQ | 15,6 % |
| PQ | 29,6 % |
| PLQ | 25,0 % |
| QS | 11,3 % |
| PCQ | 17,9 % |
127 circonscriptions · triées par numéro · valeurs calculées selon la configuration active
| Circonscription | CAQ | PQ | PLQ | QS | PCQ | 1re force | Marge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi-Est | 14,0 % | 29,0 % | 28,0 % | 9,0 % | 18,0 % | PQ | +1,0 pts |
| Abitibi-Ouest | 20,0 % | 39,0 % | 14,0 % | 11,0 % | 16,0 % | PQ | +19,0 pts |
| Acadie | 4,0 % | 12,0 % | 59,0 % | 10,0 % | 15,0 % | PLQ | +44,0 pts |
| Anjou–Louis-Riel | 13,0 % | 23,0 % | 41,0 % | 11,0 % | 11,0 % | PLQ | +18,0 pts |
| Argenteuil | 15,0 % | 37,0 % | 24,0 % | 6,0 % | 18,0 % | PQ | +13,0 pts |
| Arthabaska-L'Érable | 12,0 % | 35,0 % | 8,0 % | 6,0 % | 38,0 % | PCQ | +3,0 pts |
| Beauce-Nord | 13,0 % | 19,0 % | 9,0 % | 5,0 % | 53,0 % | PCQ | +34,0 pts |
| Beauce-Sud | 17,0 % | 16,0 % | 9,0 % | 5,0 % | 52,0 % | PCQ | +35,0 pts |
| Beauharnois | 25,0 % | 39,0 % | 13,0 % | 9,0 % | 12,0 % | PQ | +14,0 pts |
| Bellechasse | 16,0 % | 19,0 % | 8,0 % | 5,0 % | 52,0 % | PCQ | +33,0 pts |
| Berthier | 20,0 % | 43,0 % | 8,0 % | 9,0 % | 19,0 % | PQ | +23,0 pts |
| Bertrand | 19,0 % | 43,0 % | 14,0 % | 9,0 % | 14,0 % | PQ | +24,0 pts |
| Blainville | 20,0 % | 33,0 % | 26,0 % | 8,0 % | 12,0 % | PQ | +7,0 pts |
| Bonaventure | 14,0 % | 50,0 % | 19,0 % | 7,0 % | 10,0 % | PQ | +31,0 pts |
| Borduas | 30,0 % | 37,0 % | 12,0 % | 11,0 % | 9,0 % | PQ | +7,0 pts |
| Bourassa-Sauvé | 4,0 % | 15,0 % | 60,0 % | 10,0 % | 11,0 % | PLQ | +45,0 pts |
| Camille-Laurin | 9,0 % | 49,0 % | 21,0 % | 13,0 % | 8,0 % | PQ | +28,0 pts |
| Brome-Missisquoi | 19,0 % | 24,0 % | 29,0 % | 10,0 % | 17,0 % | PLQ | +5,0 pts |
| Chambly | 26,0 % | 37,0 % | 15,0 % | 11,0 % | 11,0 % | PQ | +11,0 pts |
| Champlain | 19,0 % | 29,0 % | 15,0 % | 7,0 % | 30,0 % | PCQ | +1,0 pts |
| Chapleau | 18,0 % | 23,0 % | 29,0 % | 10,0 % | 18,0 % | PLQ | +6,0 pts |
| Charlesbourg | 18,0 % | 26,0 % | 13,0 % | 9,0 % | 34,0 % | PCQ | +8,0 pts |
| Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | 18,0 % | 34,0 % | 9,0 % | 9,0 % | 30,0 % | PQ | +4,0 pts |
| Châteauguay | 16,0 % | 21,0 % | 38,0 % | 8,0 % | 16,0 % | PLQ | +17,0 pts |
| Chauveau | 18,0 % | 22,0 % | 11,0 % | 7,0 % | 42,0 % | PCQ | +20,0 pts |
| Chicoutimi | 15,0 % | 40,0 % | 10,0 % | 7,0 % | 27,0 % | PQ | +13,0 pts |
| Chomedey | 8,0 % | 12,0 % | 52,0 % | 5,0 % | 22,0 % | PLQ | +30,0 pts |
| Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | 22,0 % | 20,0 % | 11,0 % | 7,0 % | 40,0 % | PCQ | +18,0 pts |
| Côte-du-Sud | 17,0 % | 29,0 % | 12,0 % | 7,0 % | 35,0 % | PCQ | +6,0 pts |
| D'Arcy-McGee | 2,0 % | 7,0 % | 66,0 % | 6,0 % | 19,0 % | PLQ | +47,0 pts |
| Deux-Montagnes | 20,0 % | 37,0 % | 23,0 % | 8,0 % | 12,0 % | PQ | +14,0 pts |
| Drummond–Bois-Francs | 18,0 % | 30,0 % | 11,0 % | 8,0 % | 32,0 % | PCQ | +2,0 pts |
| Dubuc | 21,0 % | 44,0 % | 8,0 % | 7,0 % | 19,0 % | PQ | +23,0 pts |
| Duplessis | 22,0 % | 37,0 % | 15,0 % | 6,0 % | 20,0 % | PQ | +15,0 pts |
| Fabre | 16,0 % | 20,0 % | 39,0 % | 7,0 % | 17,0 % | PLQ | +19,0 pts |
| Gaspé | 15,0 % | 51,0 % | 18,0 % | 6,0 % | 10,0 % | PQ | +33,0 pts |
| Gatineau | 15,0 % | 23,0 % | 34,0 % | 9,0 % | 19,0 % | PLQ | +11,0 pts |
| Gouin | 6,0 % | 23,0 % | 19,0 % | 47,0 % | 4,0 % | QS | +24,0 pts |
| Granby | 26,0 % | 33,0 % | 12,0 % | 11,0 % | 17,0 % | PQ | +7,0 pts |
| Groulx | 22,0 % | 33,0 % | 26,0 % | 9,0 % | 10,0 % | PQ | +7,0 pts |
| Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | 7,0 % | 33,0 % | 17,0 % | 36,0 % | 6,0 % | QS | +3,0 pts |
| Hull | 12,0 % | 19,0 % | 41,0 % | 14,0 % | 13,0 % | PLQ | +22,0 pts |
| Huntingdon | 18,0 % | 23,0 % | 31,0 % | 9,0 % | 19,0 % | PLQ | +8,0 pts |
| Iberville | 25,0 % | 32,0 % | 12,0 % | 10,0 % | 19,0 % | PQ | +7,0 pts |
| Îles-de-la-Madeleine | 11,0 % | 59,0 % | 19,0 % | 5,0 % | 6,0 % | PQ | +40,0 pts |
| Jacques-Cartier | 1,0 % | 6,0 % | 74,0 % | 4,0 % | 14,0 % | PLQ | +60,0 pts |
| Jean-Lesage | 8,0 % | 26,0 % | 11,0 % | 30,0 % | 24,0 % | QS | +4,0 pts |
| Jean-Talon | 9,0 % | 32,0 % | 27,0 % | 13,0 % | 19,0 % | PQ | +5,0 pts |
| Jeanne-Mance–Viger | 6,0 % | 14,0 % | 59,0 % | 7,0 % | 13,0 % | PLQ | +45,0 pts |
| Johnson | 23,0 % | 31,0 % | 11,0 % | 10,0 % | 25,0 % | PQ | +6,0 pts |
| Joliette | 20,0 % | 52,0 % | 7,0 % | 7,0 % | 13,0 % | PQ | +32,0 pts |
| Jonquière | 20,0 % | 44,0 % | 8,0 % | 8,0 % | 19,0 % | PQ | +24,0 pts |
| L'Assomption | 25,0 % | 39,0 % | 14,0 % | 10,0 % | 11,0 % | PQ | +14,0 pts |
| La Peltrie | 16,0 % | 20,0 % | 18,0 % | 6,0 % | 40,0 % | PCQ | +20,0 pts |
| La Pinière | 11,0 % | 20,0 % | 49,0 % | 7,0 % | 12,0 % | PLQ | +29,0 pts |
| La Prairie | 22,0 % | 33,0 % | 23,0 % | 10,0 % | 11,0 % | PQ | +10,0 pts |
| Labelle | 20,0 % | 46,0 % | 11,0 % | 8,0 % | 14,0 % | PQ | +26,0 pts |
| Lac-Saint-Jean | 14,0 % | 40,0 % | 22,0 % | 5,0 % | 19,0 % | PQ | +18,0 pts |
| LaFontaine | 5,0 % | 13,0 % | 60,0 % | 7,0 % | 15,0 % | PLQ | +45,0 pts |
| Laporte | 15,0 % | 22,0 % | 43,0 % | 11,0 % | 8,0 % | PLQ | +21,0 pts |
| Laurier-Dorion | 3,0 % | 15,0 % | 37,0 % | 37,0 % | 8,0 % | PLQ = QS (à égalité) | égalité |
| Laval-des-Rapides | 18,0 % | 24,0 % | 36,0 % | 8,0 % | 13,0 % | PLQ | +12,0 pts |
| Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | 20,0 % | 30,0 % | 14,0 % | 7,0 % | 28,0 % | PQ | +2,0 pts |
| Les Plaines | 22,0 % | 40,0 % | 15,0 % | 8,0 % | 15,0 % | PQ | +18,0 pts |
| Lévis | 23,0 % | 23,0 % | 11,0 % | 8,0 % | 35,0 % | PCQ | +12,0 pts |
| Lotbinière-Frontenac | 17,0 % | 24,0 % | 13,0 % | 6,0 % | 41,0 % | PCQ | +17,0 pts |
| Louis-Hébert | 17,0 % | 28,0 % | 18,0 % | 9,0 % | 28,0 % | PQ = PCQ (à égalité) | égalité |
| Marguerite-Bourgeoys | 3,0 % | 12,0 % | 62,0 % | 7,0 % | 15,0 % | PLQ | +47,0 pts |
| Marie-Victorin | 17,0 % | 43,0 % | 16,0 % | 15,0 % | 8,0 % | PQ | +26,0 pts |
| Marquette | 4,0 % | 13,0 % | 62,0 % | 8,0 % | 13,0 % | PLQ | +49,0 pts |
| Maskinongé | 22,0 % | 35,0 % | 12,0 % | 7,0 % | 24,0 % | PQ | +11,0 pts |
| Masson | 24,0 % | 40,0 % | 17,0 % | 8,0 % | 11,0 % | PQ | +16,0 pts |
| Matane-Matapédia | 8,0 % | 70,0 % | 5,0 % | 5,0 % | 11,0 % | PQ | +59,0 pts |
| Maurice-Richard | 8,0 % | 30,0 % | 29,0 % | 27,0 % | 6,0 % | PQ | +1,0 pts |
| Mégantic | 16,0 % | 27,0 % | 18,0 % | 8,0 % | 30,0 % | PCQ | +3,0 pts |
| Mercier | 3,0 % | 21,0 % | 25,0 % | 45,0 % | 5,0 % | QS | +20,0 pts |
| Mille-Îles | 16,0 % | 23,0 % | 41,0 % | 8,0 % | 12,0 % | PLQ | +18,0 pts |
| Mirabel | 25,0 % | 38,0 % | 14,0 % | 8,0 % | 14,0 % | PQ | +13,0 pts |
| Mont-Royal–Outremont | 7,0 % | 17,0 % | 49,0 % | 14,0 % | 12,0 % | PLQ | +32,0 pts |
| Montarville | 24,0 % | 34,0 % | 23,0 % | 12,0 % | 7,0 % | PQ | +10,0 pts |
| Montmorency | 18,0 % | 23,0 % | 15,0 % | 9,0 % | 35,0 % | PCQ | +12,0 pts |
| Nelligan | 2,0 % | 8,0 % | 67,0 % | 4,0 % | 18,0 % | PLQ | +49,0 pts |
| Nicolet-Bécancour | 21,0 % | 30,0 % | 9,0 % | 6,0 % | 33,0 % | PCQ | +3,0 pts |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | 1,0 % | 9,0 % | 67,0 % | 10,0 % | 12,0 % | PLQ | +55,0 pts |
| Orford | 17,0 % | 23,0 % | 33,0 % | 11,0 % | 15,0 % | PLQ | +10,0 pts |
| Papineau | 19,0 % | 24,0 % | 26,0 % | 9,0 % | 21,0 % | PLQ | +2,0 pts |
| Pointe-aux-Trembles | 16,0 % | 43,0 % | 19,0 % | 12,0 % | 10,0 % | PQ | +24,0 pts |
| Pontiac | 8,0 % | 12,0 % | 56,0 % | 6,0 % | 17,0 % | PLQ | +39,0 pts |
| Portneuf | 18,0 % | 23,0 % | 9,0 % | 7,0 % | 43,0 % | PCQ | +20,0 pts |
| Prévost | 17,0 % | 42,0 % | 15,0 % | 9,0 % | 16,0 % | PQ | +25,0 pts |
| René-Lévesque | 26,0 % | 42,0 % | 9,0 % | 7,0 % | 16,0 % | PQ | +16,0 pts |
| Repentigny | 25,0 % | 40,0 % | 17,0 % | 9,0 % | 8,0 % | PQ | +15,0 pts |
| Richelieu | 24,0 % | 47,0 % | 11,0 % | 7,0 % | 11,0 % | PQ | +23,0 pts |
| Richmond | 15,0 % | 23,0 % | 24,0 % | 14,0 % | 23,0 % | PLQ | +1,0 pts |
| Rimouski | 17,0 % | 49,0 % | 9,0 % | 15,0 % | 10,0 % | PQ | +32,0 pts |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata | 21,0 % | 39,0 % | 10,0 % | 10,0 % | 18,0 % | PQ | +18,0 pts |
| Robert-Baldwin | 1,0 % | 6,0 % | 70,0 % | 4,0 % | 18,0 % | PLQ | +52,0 pts |
| Roberval | 19,0 % | 43,0 % | 12,0 % | 6,0 % | 20,0 % | PQ | +23,0 pts |
| Rosemont | 8,0 % | 31,0 % | 23,0 % | 32,0 % | 6,0 % | QS | +1,0 pts |
| Rousseau | 25,0 % | 40,0 % | 7,0 % | 9,0 % | 19,0 % | PQ | +15,0 pts |
| Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | 17,0 % | 36,0 % | 12,0 % | 20,0 % | 14,0 % | PQ | +16,0 pts |
| Saint-François | 14,0 % | 30,0 % | 21,0 % | 19,0 % | 17,0 % | PQ | +9,0 pts |
| Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | 6,0 % | 14,0 % | 37,0 % | 35,0 % | 7,0 % | PLQ | +2,0 pts |
| Saint-Hyacinthe | 22,0 % | 40,0 % | 13,0 % | 10,0 % | 15,0 % | PQ | +18,0 pts |
| Saint-Jean | 18,0 % | 43,0 % | 19,0 % | 9,0 % | 10,0 % | PQ | +24,0 pts |
| Saint-Jérôme | 20,0 % | 42,0 % | 12,0 % | 10,0 % | 15,0 % | PQ | +22,0 pts |
| Saint-Laurent | 7,0 % | 13,0 % | 56,0 % | 7,0 % | 16,0 % | PLQ | +40,0 pts |
| Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques | 7,0 % | 25,0 % | 22,0 % | 41,0 % | 5,0 % | QS | +16,0 pts |
| Sainte-Rose | 22,0 % | 21,0 % | 36,0 % | 7,0 % | 13,0 % | PLQ | +14,0 pts |
| Sanguinet | 19,0 % | 39,0 % | 18,0 % | 8,0 % | 15,0 % | PQ | +20,0 pts |
| Sherbrooke | 12,0 % | 28,0 % | 22,0 % | 28,0 % | 11,0 % | PQ = QS (à égalité) | égalité |
| Soulanges | 19,0 % | 21,0 % | 36,0 % | 7,0 % | 17,0 % | PLQ | +15,0 pts |
| Taillon | 17,0 % | 42,0 % | 23,0 % | 10,0 % | 7,0 % | PQ | +19,0 pts |
| Taschereau | 8,0 % | 28,0 % | 15,0 % | 31,0 % | 17,0 % | QS | +3,0 pts |
| Terrebonne | 27,0 % | 46,0 % | 16,0 % | 8,0 % | 3,0 % | PQ | +19,0 pts |
| Trois-Rivières | 23,0 % | 30,0 % | 15,0 % | 11,0 % | 21,0 % | PQ | +7,0 pts |
| Ungava | 17,0 % | 28,0 % | 27,0 % | 16,0 % | 12,0 % | PQ | +1,0 pts |
| Vachon | 18,0 % | 37,0 % | 23,0 % | 10,0 % | 11,0 % | PQ | +14,0 pts |
| Vanier-Les-Rivières | 18,0 % | 25,0 % | 14,0 % | 8,0 % | 35,0 % | PCQ | +10,0 pts |
| Vaudreuil | 11,0 % | 19,0 % | 45,0 % | 6,0 % | 18,0 % | PLQ | +26,0 pts |
| Verchères | 25,0 % | 44,0 % | 12,0 % | 10,0 % | 8,0 % | PQ | +19,0 pts |
| Verdun | 7,0 % | 16,0 % | 39,0 % | 30,0 % | 8,0 % | PLQ | +9,0 pts |
| Viau | 4,0 % | 17,0 % | 45,0 % | 26,0 % | 8,0 % | PLQ | +19,0 pts |
| Vimont | 18,0 % | 22,0 % | 38,0 % | 7,0 % | 14,0 % | PLQ | +16,0 pts |
| Westmount–Saint-Louis | 3,0 % | 10,0 % | 66,0 % | 8,0 % | 12,0 % | PLQ | +54,0 pts |
| Bellefeuille | 19,0 % | 38,0 % | 14,0 % | 10,0 % | 18,0 % | PQ | +19,0 pts |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie | 20,0 % | 30,0 % | 12,0 % | 9,0 % | 30,0 % | PQ = PCQ (à égalité) | égalité |